The future is near
Focus the time period to visualise the uptake of your technology
Successful inventors place their invention into the future by boot-strapping to, and improving on, known technologies. Inventors keep in mind the futurist’s rule of thumb that new technology’s:
- speed of uptake is overestimated; and
- impact is underestimated.
So let’s go on a journey. Look forward twenty years and what do you see?
- Artificial intelligence (AI) is equivalent or better than human intelligence, without requiring years of human learning, according to conservative estimates by futurist Ray Kurzweil; and
- Patents give a functional monopoly for up to twenty years, so we are in the age of the last tranche of human generated patents, since there will be an integration between:
- human generated patents; and
- machine generated patents
So things will change! But we cannot get a tangible reading of the future when we look forward twenty years other than visualising fuzzy change. If we accept that most humans are not good at estimating future developments more than 18 months into the future, then the strength of accurate visualisation comes from shortening the visualisation time span.
Humans can make very accurate predictions as to what emerging technologies will have the greater probability of success in the next 18 months.
Focus on what you know and then forecast within the boundaries of your imagination. Eighteen months into the future is a good time period to back propagate from, so as to help guide your steps to future benefit.
What are the inventive visions currently available for the next 18 months?
I often get my clues from:
- tips that venture capitalists are espousing – since they are investing in the future; and
- patent filing trends and patent maps, to locate the areas:
(a) under-developed; and/or
(b) under-invested in,
as revealed in the patent landscape.
Have a glimpse into the future using the above – all are available on the internet and appear to be a good basis for predicting future markets.